A modelling forecast from the Kenya Medical Research Institute in June 2021 warned of an imminent fourth wave with attendant risks of health service demand exceeding capacity. The Delta variant is much more transmissible than its predecessors, such as the Alpha variant, but it does not appear to cause more severe disease.
The modelling study is a welcome alert to the dangers of the Delta variant. Its findings should be used to inform preparedness by both public and private sectors. In other parts of the world, the variant has spread fast including in those who are partially immunised, overwhelming health services.
The big concern is how Kenya will fare this time around.
Source: The Conversation